Saturday at the ATP Mutua Madrid Open will just be one youngster after another trying to grab one of the biggest wins of his career. Jakub Mensik, Joao Fonseca, Matteo Arnaldi–all of these seem to have a realistic chance at upsetting the seeds. Who do you think will make the next stage of the event?

ATP Madrid Day 4 Predictions

Pavel Kotov vs Jordan Thompson

Head-to-head: First meeting

If Jordan Thompson survives in a seeding position until Wimbledon, he’ll definitely be among the players to avoid at London. But on clay, the Australian is exactly who you want to draw when you hope to go on a run. He surprised by defeating Jaume Munar in Barcelona last week in a physical slugfest and Pavel Kotov’s job will be to avoid that. While Thompson’s serve will be boosted by the altitude here, the flat forehand of the Russian should also be piercing through the court with ease.
Prediction: Kotov in 2

Grigor Dimitrov vs Jakub Mensik

Head-to-head: First meeting

Grigor Dimitrov has been extremely dominant in his opening round matches of late, not losing any since drawing Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati last year. This season he’s even getting at least two wins in every event he plays. Jakub Mensik will be one of the toughest challenges he could face at this stage of the competition though. The Czech looked fit again as he defeated Yannick Hanfmann and in these conditions, Dimitrov might have a hard time neutralizing his weapons with the backhand slice.
Prediction: Mensik in 3

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Cameron Norrie vs Joao Fonseca

Head-to-head: First meeting


Joao Fonseca is an extremely hard player to predict right now with his raw talent shining as much as his lack of experience. He quickly went down 0-4 against Alex Michelsen in the opening round, but dominated the match from that point onwards. The incredible Brazilian gets a draw that’s both tricky and manageable at the same time. Cameron Norrie has been uninspiring of late, but he’s a bit of an expert in wearing down opponents. Win or lose, this match will help Fonseca’s progress.
Prediction: Fonseca in 3

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Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Arnaldi

Head-to-head: First meeting

Matteo Arnaldi was defeated twice by Daniil Medvedev last year, but that was on hard courts and the Italian has made some rapid progress since. His win over Casper Ruud at this venue in 2023 featured so many blistering forehands and he’ll likely attempt to use the altitude conditions to blast his way through a high seed again. Given how much of a natural he is on clay compared to Medvedev, this looks much closer than their rankings or resumes would suggest.
Prediction: Arnaldi in 3

Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

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