The top half quarterfinals of the ATP Mutua Madrid Open feature top-seeded Jannik Sinner and No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev, but they might not have it all that easy on Thursday. The Italian was pushed hard by Karen Khachanov in the fourth round, while Medvedev has been forced to dig deep in almost every match played. Can Felix Auger-Aliassime or Jiri Lehecka spring an upset? Who do you think will make the semifinals?

ATP Madrid Quarterfinal Predictions

Daniil Medvedev vs Jiri Lehecka

Head-to-head: Medvedev 1-0

Jiri Lehecka has been playing some perfect matches at the ATP 1000 level recently (wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev in Indian Wells) and that performance against Rafael Nadal was nothing short of excellent on Tuesday. The Czech was clutch, serving huge, and showed phenomenal touch in the forecourt.

These attributes can definitely help him out against Daniil Medvedev too. The Russian has been fighting through his matches in Madrid, but not exactly looking close to his best on a surface he doesn’t fancy. Lehecka’s ability to transition to the net might be key here and if there’s also a steady influx of easy points on serve… He might turn out to be a more resilient version of Sebastian Korda in this matchup and the American had Medvedev on the ropes in the third round.
Prediction: Lehecka in 3

Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Head-to-head: Auger-Aliassime 2-0

The head-to-head might look a bit weird, but both matches took place in 2022. That was the best season of Felix Auger-Aliassime’s career and long before Jannik Sinner became the machine he is at the minute. The Italian was struggling with a hip issue against Pavel Kotov in the third round, but managed to recover and beat Karen Khachanov from a set down on Tuesday.

Can Auger-Aliassime take some confidence from playing one of his best matches in a while against Casper Ruud on the very same day? Probably and the altitude clay conditions in Madrid make his weaponry stand out even more than usual. But Sinner likes them too and he has been so tough to stop this year and it’s just hard to believe the Canadian will have what it takes to produce this upset.
Prediction: Sinner in 2


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